I'm finding myself drawn to the U.S. presidential primaries this year. The last eight years of U.S. politics have been an amazing thing to watch, and I can definitely imagine folks all over the States having Primary Piss-ups while watching Super Tuesday. But what will make this period in history particularly significant is that the 44th President of the United States of America will either be a woman, or a black man, and there's nothing the Republican Party can do about it.
The more I look at the Republican side of the coin, the harder it becomes to find a foothold for John "The Boss" McCain, the Republican candidate (I know it's not set in stone yet, but it's gonna happen this way.) I like McCain - he's a war hero who's not afraid to be a man and disagree with his party or his President. There's nothing they can do to him that the Viet Cong haven't done already. But this isn't about liking the guy. This is about the unfortunate truth that he can't win, but being the top candidate, he can't not run. He's fucked, and too old to run next time, and like so many ambitious Senators before him, will be forgotten and wiped from the pages of history.
He can find some solace in the fact that his campaign was most likely doomed from the start. Old G-Dub's Gallup Poll approval rating was 24% in October, the lowest since Nixon, and the fall from around 90% at the start of his term merely adds insult to injury as the current President has become a disgraced politician, an Internet meme, and the butt of every comedian's jokes for the last eight years. All this time I, like so many people out there, knew I'd pity the poor Republican bastard who had to run for President in '08 because there was no way they could represent the GOP and win.
No, there is no way he will win, because Change appears to be the underlying theme for the 2008 election, and every time this happens the Democrats have won convincing elections. This year will be no different. No matter what happens in their camp, they will have a physical presence in the election race that no white man can touch. It's a matter of symbolism supporting sincerity; people will have an easy time believing that a woman or a black man will do things differently to Bush.
And in times of Change, looks matter. McCain is suffering from a life of war, ill health and old age; if by some miracle he does become the 44th President, he would be 72 years old and the eldest President ever. Clinton would be 61, but she doesn't look it. Obama would be 47. If Clinton gets in, Obama can wait 8 years for a shot at the title and still have years to spare (this would be a great tactic for securing the Democrats 4 consecutive terms.)
So what can the Republicans do to regain their political advantage? I'd advise a gameplan similar to the Liberals here in Australia. We're seeing a reinvention of the Coalition, and what better place to start than by jumping off the sinking ship? The Liberals' key ministers are making an excellent long-term play right now, taking advantage of Howard's public silence to rally behind a new Prime Minister, even declaring that Howard should have quit long ago.
This will work a treat. The public's attention span is not exactly marathon. Amongst the hubbub surrounding Rudd's apology last week, people will know that the Liberals have jumped ship, but they don't really have time to care (and become cynical.) Meanwhile, the Libs make their adjustment to political Change, and will bounce back in a term or two with a crushing victory. Happens every time.
With this in mind, I can think of a few things things the Republican Party needs to tick off of the list in 2009 to reinvent itself and get back on track:
- Sever all ties with Bush. Make it clear that the man who just left the White House is not the rule when it comes to the Republicans. Jump ship and bury him in an underwater cave or something, just make sure that he can't come back to haunt you.
- Can the GOP bullshit, in every way. There can't be many Republicans who think that the "Grand Old Party" could seriously contend a presidential campaign when Change rears its ugly head.
- Get a candidate who's 45-50 years young. Like I said before, youth is important in a campaign dominated by Change, and Change is necessary when you're back's against the wall, just like it is now. FDR (D) was 51 when he was sworn in and you wouldn't have known it to look at him. JFK (D) was 43. Bill Clinton (D) was 48. Things will still be tough in four years, probably even in eight, so you need somebody who represents hope.
- Pray that the Democrats fuck it up. This would be a godsend of a scenario for the Republican Party: American takes a risk on a woman or a black man, he/she fails miserably, and the Republicans come along and clean up the mess. I wouldn't count on it though; history will look back on either Clinton or Obama as a great President despite their performance.
- Stick to the Party lines. Keep the focus on national security. Continue the fear campaign that has served them so well in the past - if anything will galvanise the masses, it's a man who can save them from what they fear. Keep close eyes on the budget, China & Japan, crime and taxes.
- Smear, smear, smear. Get dirty - there's no way the Republican Party can run a squeaky-clean, may-the-best-man/woman-win campaign for at least two terms. In the interim, get stuck into the President and his/her party. Make sure that when it's time to pick a new President, it's a tough decision.
- Get behind One Man. I know it's a pipe-dream, but I would love to see a Republican presidential campaign that really backs one guy from the start. Concentrate forces, raise a shitload of money and come out fighting hard, with the full support of the party behind them. Find former Republican men of power and get them endorsing the candidate. They're starting to come around this time, but it's just too late.
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